On Sunday October 31st 2011, Imran Khan finally entered the political consciousness of Punjab, in a massive rally in Lahore, attending by hundreds of thousands of people from all walks of life. The exact figures of the attendants are hard to estimate, with some saying 150,000 while others placed it up to 500,000. This was shocking for everyone, including Khan and the Tehreek-e-Insaaf, who had placed just 50,000 seats at the venue, expecting a moderate turnout at best. The fact that upto half a million showed up to support the cricketer-turned-politician is a huge achievement for the PTI, which has struggled to be part of mainstream politics since its inception 15 years ago. Meanwhile, the PMLN, which had dismissed the PTI as little more than a fringe element, labeling Imran Khan as “Pagal Khan” (courtesy of Rana Sanaullah), experienced a rude awakening, especially when compared to a party rally led by Shahbaz Sharif two days before Khan’s, a gathering that paled in comparison.
Now before everyone starts labeling Imran Khan as the next Prime Minister/Che Guevara/Dajaal Killer/Savior of Pakistan, let’s please calm down. I’m sure Imran Khan can be the leader of the free world in some other planet, but his problem is, this is Earth. Though the PTI has made its presence felt in the political landscape of Punjab, it certainly does not apply to the other provinces, where it remains a marginal player at best, and a statistical negligence at worst. And even in Punjab, there’s the PPP and PML-Q to contend with as well. Even if Khan musters enormous support, he can hope at best to be a minor coalition member in Punjab or the Federal Government on the lines of JUI-F or ANP. I don’t care how much the ‘agencies’ support him, it will be a long, long time before the PTI becomes a force on par with the “shere aaya” brigade or the “har ghar se bhutto niklay gaa” bandwagon.
What I find more interesting about the Lahore rally is not the PTI’s influence, but rather the nature of the rally itself. It was less of a political event, and more of a public spectacle. Musicians Shehzad Roy and Strings were present to show their support to Khan and his followers, not too far from the US, where Presidential candidates are supported by Hollywood celebrities. However, it is an unprecedented development here in Pakistan, where celebrities are wary of making any political statements to avoid being in the establishment’s limelight. Junoon tried doing that with ‘Ehtesaab’ in the mid 90′s and it got banned as a result. That trend seems to have changed with the Lahore rally, and if more celebrities jump the PTI bandwagon, it will create significant momentum in Khan’s favor by riding on their popularity.
The composition of the crowds was equally interesting. I hate to sound elitist, but the majority of party rallies are driven by party loyalists, workers and “rent-a-crowd” types who are bribed or coerced into taking part. The Lahore rally was different. We saw families from all classes gather at the event. People saw Khan’s speech live on television and ran to the venue to be part of it. Young men and women from colleges and universities flocked to the gathering. And, in what can be considered a milestone for Punjab, the crowds represented the urban demographic, a section of the society that has traditionally been quite averse to street politics.
These two factors present the true impact of the the PTI movement. Somehow, the party has managed to mobilize a part of society that has always been afraid to make its presence felt beyond armchair debates. It is quite possible that the Lahore rally represents the tipping point for urban politics in Punjab, which includes the participation of educated youth, and suburban families that have previously been unwilling to get their hands dirty in the political landscape. It was this aversion that parties like the PMLN have relied upon to muster their own support, knowing there is little else to turn to. Those assumptions have been challenged by this flurry of support for the PTI. Even now, people are congratulating each other on Facebook for coming to the event, some are expressing regrets over not showing up, and others are eagerly anticipating rallies in their own cities so they can take part. It became less of a political showdown, and more of a must see spectacle.
To be fair to the traditional politicians, no one saw this coming. A year ago, Imran Khan appeared on a television talk show, where the host commented that if urban youth, Khan’s main support, are not patient enough to wait in voting queues, how can they be expected to create any ripple in the PTI’s fortunes. Khan’s response was more emotional than logical, as he maintained that the day was not far when such youth would be actively participating in Pakistan’s political future. At that time, the host dismissed the possibility as wishful thinking. There can be no such dismissals now.
Credit must be given to Imran Khan for realizing the potential of this untapped sector, and encouraging it to be part of mainstream politics. The use of technology, including Facebook promotions, and an SMS-recruiting system, where anyone can become a PTI member through a text message, are seminal breakthroughs for a political system that has always relied on archaic support systems such as rural areas and party jiyalas. Such methods have introduced educated Pakistanis into the political mainstay, and with the Lahore rally, signs are appearing of a critical mass of urban politics in Punjab, and indeed Pakistan. We observed a similar pattern with Barack Obama’s 2008 Presidential campaign, where technology was used to mobilize millions of youngsters, a movement which paved his way to the Oval Office, and though Khan is no Obama, the momentum shift of the urban sector bears much similarities.
The only other recent example of such mobilization was the Lawyers Movement to restore Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry after his ouster by the Musharraf regime. We saw increasing involvement of students and urban Pakistanis as part of the massive crowds that fought the Musharraf and the Zardari administrations to have Justice Chaudhry back in the Supreme Court. Then, as now, the movement was not driven by politics alone, but rather on a principled stand by principled men. Pakistan is a country starved of principled leaders standing for something for normative notions rather than petty politics. However, such movements have never been in support of politicians, until last Sunday, and that makes the Lahore rally all the more significant. The desperation of the people to avoid the Bhuttos, the Mians, and the Chaudhries, has driven them to such causes, where morality takes center stage above all. Despite his flaws, Khan comes across as a man obstinate when it comes to his principles, which initially made him a political liability, but is now his greatest asset, as he has helped mobilize an inert section of society on his unwavering stance.
The Lahore rally is not a coming of age for Imran Khan, but rather for the urban demographic of Pakistan. It is not Imran Khan that has entered into the political mainstream, but rather the educated section of society, which seems to have rolled up its sleeves and started grinding its way to a better tomorrow. There is a recognition that there can be no ‘Arab Spring’ in Pakistan until the people get off their comfortable drawing rooms, and move to the streets to make their presence felt. It is clear that a critical mass of urban political mobilization has been reached, and we will now see a lot more involvement of young educated Pakistanis, regardless of whether they support the PTI or anyone else. The hundreds of thousands present at the Lahore rally do not represent the collective strength of the PTI, or even Imran Khan, but rather the emergence of an urban consciousness which wishes to take the nation’s destiny into its own hands. It seems that ‘Pagal Khan’ wasn’t so Pagal after all.
